Whatever happens the rest of the 2006 season, it's pretty safe to say the Tigers have awakened the long dormant baseball fans in Detroit. How can you not be excited about baseball after what the Tigers did to the Indians this past weekend? I don't think I've ever heard Tigers' radio play-by-play man Dan Dickerson more excited than when he called Pudge's walk-off home run on Saturday. In July I wondered if these 2006 Tigers could finish with a better record than the 1984 version... well with 112 games now in the book, it sure looks like not only is this possible, it is becoming more and more probable. Since baseball is a game of numbers, I've been doing some calculations on where this team stands so far this year:
2006 Tigers: 76-36 (.679, 40 games over .500)
1984 Tigers: 73-39
So in order to hit 105 victories and pass the 1984 Tigers team record, they will have to go 29-21 in their last 50 games, or play .580 baseball. Very doable indeed based on what's happened so far in 2006.
In terms of their chances of winning the AL Central, the records after tonight's games:
Detroit: 76-36
Chicago: 65-45 (.591, 10 games behind)
Minnesota: 65-46 (.586, 10.5 games behind)
If the Tigers play .500 ball the rest of the way, they will win 101 games. The White Sox would have to finish 37-15 (.712) to finish with 102 wins. Similarly, the Twins would have to go 37-14 (.725) to get to 102 wins.
I fully expect the Tigers to hit a rough patch or two the rest of the way, but I certainly don't see them playing anything worse than .500 ball. The way this season has gone so far, playing the last 50 at .500 would be a big disappointment. Are the White Sox and/or Twins good enough to play at a .700+ level the rest of the season? That seems more unlikely than the Tigers finishing at or below .500 in their remaining games.
Just for fun... let's look at the numbers if the Tigers do manage a 29-21 finish to hit that 105 win mark. For the White Sox to get to 106 wins, they need to finish 41-11 (.788), the Twins 41-10 (.804). A tall, tall order indeed.
Of course nothing is to be taken for granted... but just by looking at the numbers, it looks pretty likely there will be some playoff baseball in Detroit this October. Whodda thunk it!?!
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